Ecommerce trends shaping Black Friday and peak season sales

Our new report on consumer behavior in the digital economy highlights key trends ahead of peak shopping season 2024.

Exclusive research commissioned by Checkout.com found that one third of children in the US cite gaming apps as a “common shopping channel”. This shows just how much digital technology has transformed the way that young people access products and make payments compared with their grandparents’ generation.

Accepting payments via mobile app or digital wallet is increasingly important for ecommerce merchants. At least one in ten adults usually pay for non-essential digital purchases in this way. Looking at survey results by region, mobile payments are more commonly used in China and the UAE, compared with the US and UK.

Globally, 39% of households contain at least one person who buys an entertainment streaming service (such as television or music) at least once per month.

Customers who signed up for a streaming service during a Black Friday deal are unlikely to cancel their subscription after the holidays are over. In fact, 75% will stay on. This is a green light for digital entertainment merchants who are wary over the likely return on investment for peak season deals and marketing.

When are the main peak season shopping events in 2024?‍
‍1. Singles Day takes place on November 11, in China. The figures 11.11 represent four individuals, standing together. It’s a sales shopping event that can last several weeks, both online and in physical stores
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2. White Friday is a four-day shopping event that takes place between November 24 and 27 in the Middle East and North Africa.
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3. Black Friday is November 29 in 2024. It’s the day after the US festival of Thanksgiving but has since spread to multiple countries worldwide.
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4. Cyber Monday falls on December 2. Discount shopping events used to take place in bricks-and-mortar stores on Black Friday, then online on Cyber Monday. However, many retailers will now run sales over all four days both in-store and online.

For the purposes of this article, “peak season event” will refer to any of the four events mentioned above.

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Subscribers during sales are surprisingly sticky

Streamers are galvanized by shopping deals at the end of November. One in five (20%) purchased an entertainment streaming service as part of a Black Friday, White Friday or Cyber Monday deal. An even healthier one in four (25%) intend to sign up for one this year.

One may assume that impulse subscription purchases would lead to cancellations down the line. However, our report found 75% of shoppers who subscribed to a streaming service during a peak season deal remained subscribed.

Millennials spend strong on digital education for children

The digital native generation are eager to foster technology skills in their children. Our study found almost two in five (39%) UK millennials buy digital educational resources for children aged 4-15 monthly. Millennials in China are even more likely to spend on this: the proportion rising to 59%. And over half (51%) of those in the UAE make the same investment.

The World Economic Forum estimates 23% of global jobs will look different in the next five years due to changes in the industry, with 43% of work tasks to be automated by 2027. Such rapid transformation demands a highly responsive educational model for people of all ages. As the tech-aware generation, Millennials are looking beyond traditional print media to equip their children for the future.

So-called “Edtech” (educational technology) is increasingly prevalent in the lives of today’s youth. Whereas Millennials’ parents wrote school essays using pen, paper, and perhaps a typewriter, in just two generations, screens have become an everyday fixture of the learning environment. Subscriptions are a natural outgrowth of the need for reliable, easy-to-access, high-quality learning materials. It is often far simpler to scale digital goods distribution than it is physical copies of textbooks. Alongside the steady demand for media streaming services, e-learning services seem like the next logical purchase for enhancing daily life.

Sales shopping events don’t always influence gift purchases

Despite the marketing frenzy surrounding peak season shopping, it’s not necessarily the make-or-break event for all businesses. If a large proportion of your customers buy your products or services as gifts for their loved ones’ birthday or celebrations, then peak season may not be your most lucrative time.

Respondents in our study were evenly split on the time of year they buy gifts for friends, family and romantic partners. One third (31%) said they buy gifts throughout the year when they see things they’d like, regardless of the price. Another third (31%) buy throughout the year when they see a bargain.

Just one in four (24%) of shoppers say they’ll start gift shopping during specific sales events such as Black Friday or Cyber Monday.

When it comes to gift shopping timings, parents buying for their own teenagers were most likely to buy just before the special occasion (37%) or throughout the year (36%), regardless of the price.

Payment methods by region

It’s a must that ecommerce businesses take credit card payments. Two in five (42%) of shoppers in the US usually buy non-essentials online using their credit card. This is comparable to the United Arab Emirates, where 44% typically do the same.

Credit card use is slightly less prevalent in China, where around a third (29%) of adults usually shop online with a credit card.

Consumers in China are most likely to expect to be able to pay online with a QR code compared with other global regions; 37% of Chinese shoppers usually use QR code payment for non-essential online purchases. This compares with just 4% of UAE shoppers and 3% of US shoppers.

Mobile payments are vital for digital-first merchants, too. One in three adults in China usually use a mobile payment app or digital wallet (such as Weixin Pay or Alipay) for such purchases. It’s slightly less common in the UAE, where one in five (21%) adults do so.

Mobile payment is a somewhat less common form of payment in Western nations. However, it is still a significant payment channel. A considerable 14% of UK adults usually pay with their mobile when shopping for non-essentials online. It’s 15% for shoppers in the US. Merchants without mobile payment options, may, therefore, neglect more than one in ten of their Western customers.

The findings of this new report are best looked at in the context of the wider ecommerce market. Let’s look at the latest trends in the broader world of ecommerce.

Ecommerce market insights

Ecommerce has seen very strong revenue growth between 2023 and 2024, particularly in comparison to the stagnation of overall market revenues between 2021-2023. In this analysis, we’re looking at the sale of physical goods via a digital channel to an individual consumer (B2C).

In addition to revenue, both market size and user penetration grew this year. The total ecommerce market grew 14.67% in 2024.

Let’s break down the contributing factors to this healthy growth. The top reasons for increased ecommerce spending (market drivers for revenue change) are:

Enhanced online shopping experience (7.26%)
Social commerce trend (5.67%)
Increasing number of internet users (4.79%)
GDP growth (4%)
Impact of artificial intelligence (1.15%)
Impact of inflation (1.02%)

Reasons for revenue decrease are:

Supply chain pressure (-2.41%)
Geopolitical uncertainty (-3.38%)
Negative consumer sentiment (-3.43%)

Overall ecommerce revenue actually shrank between 2021 and 2022, particularly in the fashion and electronics categories. However, these, and other consumer goods categories are set to make a strong comeback.

Segments set to grow between 2023 and 2024 (in order of growth size):

Household essentials (23.7%)
Food (22.9%)
Beverages (19.2%)
Tobacco products (16.7%)
OTC pharmaceuticals (15.3%)
Electronics (13.5%)
Beauty and personal care (12.2%)
DIY & Hardware store (12.2%)
Fashion (12.2%)
Toys and hobby (12%)
Furniture (10.5%)
Media (10.5%)
Eyewear (9.7%)

Segments particularly set to grow between 2024 and 2025:

Food (22.8%)
Household Essentials (22.5%)
Tobacco Products (20.6%)
OTC Pharmaceuticals (17.9%)
Beverages (17.3%)
Media (15.7%)
Electronics (15.4%)
Fashion (14.3%)
DIY & Hardware Store (13.6%)
Beauty & Personal Care (13.3%)
Toys & Hobby (13.2%)
Furniture (12.4%)
Eyewear (10.4%)

Some product categories are seeing particularly noteworthy increases in average revenue per user. After drastically cutting spending between 2021 and 2023, the average shopper purchasing tobacco products online will increase spend by 18% in 2025 (compared with 2023).

We see a similar trend with those buying food online; while these shoppers slightly reduced spending between 2021 and 2023, they’ll be eager to spend again between 2024 and 2025. Food will see the most significant positive revenue change of any category between 2024 and 2025.

The above research only covers physical goods. However, the market for digital media such as videos, music, ebooks, and games is poised for steady growth – a CAGR of 12.7% between 2017 and 2027, according to Statista Market Insights. The improving speed of internet connections combined with the proliferation of digital technologies in schools contributes to this.

Online gaming, mobile gaming and cloud gaming are highly influential in the world of digital goods. Online video games accounted for 61% of digital media market revenue in 2023.

Our own survey found one in five (20%) Gen Z individuals in China regularly use a digital entertainment or gaming app as a shopping channel. This is roughly identical to the US (19%) and the UAE (22%), which goes to show how important this relatively new mode of purchase has become.

Generation Alpha are even more likely to buy through game apps: 33% of children in the US aged 8-15 are in the habit. This compares with 22% in China and 25% in the UAE. Just 16% of UK Gen Alphas agreed – yet this is far higher than the average UK consumer. Only 7% of all UK consumers would regularly buy from a digital entertainment or gaming app.